Churchouse Letter
August 2016           by Peter Churchouse

Phase 4: A Multi-Trillion Dollar Opportunity

... and it's only the beginning

Sometimes you have to sit back and take stock of the bigger picture. You might not like what you see, but there are always opportunities.
I believe we are approaching a fundamental change in how governments deal with the inability of the global economy to pull itself out of a 5+ year rut... and there's a way to profit.

Chances are that at some point you have heard economics referred to as the ‘dismal science’. It’s a term first coined by Scottish historian Thomas Carlyle in the 19th century.

Hundreds of years later, the label still sticks.

Carlyle invented the phrase in response to the gloomy predictions of English cleric and scholar Thomas Robert Malthus.

In 1798, Malthus published what would become his most famous work, ‘An Essay on the Principle of Population’. It was a landmark piece of economic and demographic literature.

In it, Malthus argued that human population growth would ultimately lead to famine and disease. “The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man,” he writes.

This prediction became known as the ‘Malthusian catastrophe’.

In the ensuing three decades he published another five editions of his research, each time addressing academic criticisms of his work and expanding on his theory.

Well, in 1800 the global population was roughly a billion people. Today it’s more than seven times that and, so far, the world has endeavoured to create sustenance that continues to support an ever-growing population.

However, as most of you will know, I studied economics and, like Carlyle, I believe it is indeed in many ways a dismal science.

But this dismal science has taught me one of the most important lessons I’ve ever learned: always look at the big picture.

The ability to step back, ignore the noise and look at the macro is a skill that is both vastly underappreciated and under-used today.

And I can understand why. The sheer volume of news, opinions, stories and drama that is thrown our way obscures the bigger picture.

We live in a 24-hour rolling financial news cycle. Listed companies frequently operate on just a three-month horizon, trying to satisfy investor demands for every quarterly earnings report. And I can’t tell you how many times financial journalists here in Hong Kong have asked me what I think XYZ company’s stock is going to do ‘this week, this month’.

In this edition of The Churchouse Letter, we’re going to step back and take a look at the big picture. I’ll warn you in advance, it doesn’t look pretty.

But don’t despair.

We identify a global trend that is going to drive extremely good returns in a relatively low risk, lower volatility investment sector.

The prospects in this space will be huge, and driven by the very dire straits that we identify within the big picture.

This is an opportunity that is emerging BECAUSE of the poor economic prospects facing the world right now.

And this is not some flaky, micro sector of the economy. It is big, bulky and eminently investable.

Peter takes a look at the current state of the global economy, and what macro factors have been suppressing global growth in this month's edition of The Churchouse Letter.

He's identified a sector that's ready for some serious attention as a way to get the economy back on track.

Don't miss out on this sleeping giant. Purchase your subscription today to see what's coming on the macro level, and what you need to do to keep ahead of it.

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