2015 Investment Outlook
“We really can’t forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but really we can’t” Alan Greenspan
Every December brings lots of long lunches and evenings with former work colleagues, acquaintances and friends as everybody starts winding down for Christmas.
It’s also a time when I get one particular question thrown at me a lot:
“Pete, what do you think the market’s going to do next year?”
But this December has been a particularly crazy month.
We’ve seen some massive volatility out of the emerging markets. Asia’s had a wild ride. EM currencies are down. Credit spreads are widening everywhere (i.e. investors are becoming more risk averse and demanding a higher rate of return for a given credit quality). And of course oil prices are back at GFC levels.
I figured this year, to make it a little easier, I’d sit down with Tama and we’d put our heads together and come up with some macro calls for 2015.
Many of our calls are based around our views on inflation and interest rates. As a result, the implications of our predictions have a tendency to bleed into one another.
This is because of the fundamental interrelatedness of the global economy. i.e. Our view on the Fed will impact our view on Europe, and what happens in Europe can affect some of our Asian calls and so on.
We’ve put precise numbers on our predictions where possible… But this report should be viewed as food for thought more than anything. Our more specific recommendations will come in The Churchouse Letter.
Wishing you a very prosperous 2015 from everyone here at Churchouse Publishing…